Web 2.0 is changing everything about market research, or is it?
In some ways, the market research community (or industry if you will) is in crisis.
The bulwark of surveying, telephone interviews, is in a sea change: according to the Economist, about 25% of Americans rely solely on a cell phone for telecommunications. This is up from just 7% in 2005. At current rates of decline, the last lineline will be disconnected in 2025.
Meanwhile, only 62% of Americans have internet access at home as of 2007, according to the U.S. Census. While this number has undoubtedly increased as of 2010, it is still nowhere near the ubiquity that landline phones once held.
Both these trends are making reliable national probability sampling a major difficulty.
And the Internet and Internet marketing (and Internet market research) are all the rage as the answer to the problem.
Looking out over this landscape I am struck by one overwhelming observation: Web 2.0 market research (communities of users, Facebook fans, etc.) and even probability sampling studies on the Web are often convenience samples and therefore strictly qualitative in nature.
Useful? Certainly! Web 2.0 provides immediate feedback from highly motivated and involved customers and potential customers. You can quickly, easily and inexpensively float new ideas, new concepts, and trial balloons and get a quick brush on viability.
But in the rush to Web 2.0, market research 2.0 should tread carefully.
Market research is build upon the hard math of probability theory. And a fundamental truth about market research is that it is only as good as the sampling from which results are drawn.
Businesses that are exclusively or primarily Internet marketers certainly have an easier time insuring that they have solid customer (or population) samples. Easier, but caution is the watchword still.
More to follow.
Comments welcome!
Dr. Bob
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